What this paper covers
1
The Customer Ownership Crisis
Why the supplier with the deepest relationship pays the heaviest intermediary tax.
2
Why OTAs Won Historically
Seven real functions OTAs delivered — and the auction-scale moat underneath.
3
The Hidden Economics of Loyalty
$23B in airline mile liability, $7.5B at Marriott alone. Loyalty as settlement infrastructure, not marketing.
4
Why Airlines Became Banks With Wings
Co-brand revenue now exceeds operating profit at all three legacy US carriers.
5
Why Hotels Own the Experience the Industry Underprices
The supplier with the longest exposure and the highest-bandwidth relationship gets the worst deal.
6
The Build: Supplier-to-Supplier Coordination
What a constructive reform looks like — infrastructure that works for both sides.
Key figures from the paper
$160B
Combined OTA enterprise value built on hotel commissions
$16.4B
US Big-3 co-brand credit card revenue in 2024
15–25%
Hotel OTA commission rate vs sub-3% on air
~18 mo
Window for suppliers to claim the agent surface
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